There is a joke from Belarus about the difference between a Belarusian optimist and a Belarusian pessimist.  The Belarusian pessimist says, “oh, this is as bad as it could possibly be, it couldn’t get worse than this.”  The Belarusian optimist says, “Oh, yes it can, it can get much worse.”  I have to admit, the news out of Egypt has me thinking I might have tendencies towards Belarusian optimism.  I have been watching the elated crowds in Egypt today (Friday) on CNN.  It is one of these wonderful historic moments when we get to see the power of ordinary people who demand change.  It reminds me of the euphoria when the Berlin Wall came down in 1989.  The news coverage is full of reporters asking Egyptians “what now?”  The response I keep hearing is “today we want to celebrate” or “now is not the time for that question.” 

These responses worry me.  Yesterday was the time for that question.  Tomorrow is already late. Yes, Mubarak’s departure is news worthy of great celebration. But, unfortunately, recent world history has shown, time and time again, how difficult it is for an authoritarian dictatorship to make the transition to thriving democracy.  It is even harder in places with no history of democracy, little rule of law, and high levels of corruption.  Although Mubarak is gone, all those that made his government work and that benefitted from it are still firmly in place.  The interests to keep things as they are will, I fear, prove to be powerful and entrenched.  

I have no doubt that there will be change in Egypt.  I just hope that it is for the better.  I hope that all the Egyptian optimism expressed by the demonstrators will pave the way for a better future in that country—and perhaps provide an example for countries like Belarus to emulate.  So, for now, I am trying to quiet my inner Belarusian optimist and enjoy the moment.